2016开始了

2015年已经过去了，回首过去的一年，感谢前辈们的教导和指点，让我学习了好多新的东西，尤其是好多前辈的无私的分享，重要的是不需要一分钱的分享。希望2016年大家在股市还是得到大家所期待的。2016年股市会有如何的变化，应该也是老问题，global的经济放缓;原产品的低迷尤其是crude oil可能导致2016的budget会revise,emerging 市场的低货币， IS的嚣张;产业的低迷;1MDB的烂账等等,应该不会有什么特别的大问题了！下半年市场主要还是把主力放在出口公司上，根据最新到十月份的出口数据，的确我们的出口额还是非常强劲的，达到了Rm644billion,比起去年数据增加了多10billion的，个人认为下半年出口公司还是维持在强劲的。至于USDMYR会暂时休息一下在first quarter,为什么我会这样说，因为上半年有好多出口商会把钱放在USD dollar的，不过after federal reserve也起了一点点的interest rate 0.25%，没什么惊喜地，不给了我们一年的惊吓， 再加上赚了很多美金，到年尾应该赚回多少回来MYR给annual bonus 员工了，那么辛苦的一年，要鉴赏一下的。

产业股的话就没什么吸引力的，可以暂时不用太过理会的，可以多注意建筑业里的WCT, Kilum, gadang and Weida的，这些公司还有蛮多工程在手上的，下半年应该都蛮乐观的!

如果我们看回出口的手套股，Tooglove, harta, kossan, comfort,careplus全都在历史上最高的位置了，average PE around 40左右，给我来说太高了，只要美金一滑落的话它们会非常的敏感，如果死都要买进手套股的话我鼓励可看Supermax和Esceram,这两个价钱还不是好高。

科技出口股来说，之前有注意的MMSV在上个业绩不如预期的好，价钱滑落了蛮多的，公司管理层还是对下年的Order有乐观的看法，没有鼓励买进，除非下个业绩可以保持以及得到更好的盈利。另外，之前所说Tekseng,也开始得到了好的回报率，这股因为出口solar panel到USA和中国，预测会uptrend到下年，可以继续持有的http://clarkfook.blogspot.my/2015/12/tekseng-7200-0845.html 。还有一个是Penta,penta就不有写太多的，因为蛮多人有分析这股，你可以从internet里找到关于它好多的资料，冷眼也是这股的30大股东之一，不过股价没什么跑动的，主要预测的盈利来说看，下个quarter应该也是不错，因为公司管理层也有在报纸透露会是不错的，真不真就不知道的，但是如果从出口数据的来看，Penta所出口的特性的Product，在整体的出口比率来看是有上涨，再加上出口到中国的的比重比较大，刚好Penta Products出口到中国的是比较多，大家可以留意的。另外买家理由是因为公司计划私下配股，也就是所说的Private placement,可能公司还没指定或肯定谁来接股的，不过肯定的这corporate exercise将会在这年first quarter 完成，完成后股价好大好大可能就会跑了，因为在还没指定由谁来接票或完成private placement之前把股票推起的话，公司会达不到它们预期的效果，它们也要赚大钱的哦！所以现在的价钱一直被压着，而且还低估的，再等等的，如果我们看FUNDAMENTAL的话

在家私股来说，Hevea, Homeriz,SYF都是处于良好的状况 ，Hevea也达到我个人的目标价了，也出票了，如果还有持有的朋友们都可以继续持有，因为下来的盈利还是不错的。我本身有持有着Homeriz和SYF的，个人觉得Homeriz是好过SYF的，如果要得到chinese new year红包的话，可以考虑考虑这两只的，分分钟过年你不用那么辛苦的去赌博的。哈哈! 


至于plastic股，之前买进的tomypark已经翻了一倍了，superln也一倍了。至于要买进也比较不鼓励了。要买plastic股可以看看tienwah的，最近RHB Investment把它放了在下年2016的Top pick 里，总而言之，RHB Investment 的老板是EPF,如果是EPF的Fund进入的话多多少少会有一定的推动力的。大家可以研究研究下，在大机构的buy call 后，好大可能可以拿到一点盈利得的。Tguan也是要要注意的，因为它是fund manager 的Top pick. 另一个是Tguan, 之前投资40million加强本身在出产包鲜纸的production line,它将会成为国内最大的包鲜纸生产商， 再加上低油价拉低运作成本，在2016将会持续的爆发，这股是fund manager 2016 的 stock top 10 pick有, Icon8888,以及官有缘2016 参加i3investor 的stock pick. 这股我非常放心的买http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/88890.jsp 。。。所以在任性一点买都没关系。


如果在消费股来说，个人会比较喜欢NTPM (tissue papers producer)和Hupseng饼干生产商的。。NTPM这股我个人认为一定要买的，就因为Vietnam的经济爆发了，下年会更爆发，Vietnam的消费水平会提高好多，就让我这样任性的买一次吧！另外的Vietnam theme play也有电器制造商Keinhin，随着越南的经济爆发，domestic对电器产品的需求会日日夜夜的提升。另外一个可以注意的就是tecguan, 我兴趣者可以按这link来看的http://clarkfook.blogspot.my/201 ... d-profit-trend.html ，这也是RHB Investment 2016的 stock pick. 

最后，在新的一年希望大家一起学习和huat的，我还是觉得今年的股市可以过得去的。

（没有买卖的建议，个人意见吧了，买卖之付）

Tekseng (7200), 0.845

Business engaged in the manufacture and trading of PVC related product and solar panel.

Key exporter beneficiary:

1. US demand rise for solar panels to last through at least 2017.
2. US anti-dumping duties on China and Taiwan producers provides a 20% pricing advantage. 
3. Cost effective after joint venture with Taiwan company will more production line.

2016 net earning to rise by over 5 fold from 2014's Rm7 million to Rm41million

1. Potential upside given october's annualized net profit reached RM50 million, above full year 2016 forecast.

2. New OEM contract with assured intermediate term profit to add Rm5 million to net profit.

3. Solar panel will boom early next year. The global market for solar panels is expected to soar to a record high in the first half of 2016 because of strong demand as well as favorable policies in the USA and China. IHS says that manufacturers will produce 16.82 gigawatts of solar panels in the first quarter next year followed by another 17.73 gigawatts in the second quarter. One gigawatt is nearly the equivalent energy produced by a large gas or nuclear plant.

Capital management

1. Dividend yield could reach 4.8% in 2016 based on min 30% payout ratio policy.

2. Solar panel manufacturing JV could enhance capital management.

Target price: short term TP Rm1.15; long term TP 1.30, implied 2016 Forecast EPS

Tecguan (7439) in a good profit trend

Market price: Rm1.54

NTA: Rm2.00

Gearing ratio ( Total asset/ total liabilities)=  1.93 times

Net cash per share: Rm0.71 ( cash rich and healthy financial status)

Teck guan perdana berhad, engaged in the manufacture and sales of cocoa products in Malaysia, product primarily include cocoa butter, cocoa powder. If also engaged in trade and export of plantation produce; finished wood products, trade cocoa bean.

Buying points:

•       80% sales mainly in foreign currency, cost of good sales 73% in MYR. ( without any risk for currency conversion risk and benefit from strengthen USD dollar)
•      Oil palm planted area are matured ( Average 13 years crop age, it’s a best harvest age).
•        Rm2.00 NTA compare market price now Rm1.54 market price. ( undervalue)
•        Healthy balance sheet with healthy cash flow.

Target price:

Based on PE ratio forecast next Q3 and Q4 net profit. If next two Q3 and Q4 net profit can maintain profit like Q1 and Q2 2015  average 2.5 million to 3 million, company forecast PE will be PE ratio around 6 times ( is very cheap damn cheap!)

TP1: Rm 2.00 (short term); long term TP: RM2.30

Petronm 3042

Petronm (3042),
市价:Rm3.10
这股我们上星期有和我们的前辈和一位精算师朋友有研究过，这公司是经营petron打油站的。主要的业务是提炼汽油和燃油，而不是採油的，所以国际油价上涨和下涨完全不会影响到它的，反而它可以得到更多好处，因为政府已经fixed了它们的盈利%。 市场上好多人误会以为国际油价的重挫会影响到它的盈利，所以比较少人买进，但我们已经开始留意到这股开始有大买家开始买进了。之前股价下跌是因为公司花了好多钱去把个地区的mobile and esso 油站改变为现在的petron油站以及增加输运管的距离，和加强好多的设施，以满足未来的需求。
我们可以看到公司的提升工程已经完成了，业绩在今年的第一和第二业绩报告得到了非常好的盈利，如果第三和第四的报告可以保持在前两个的盈利一样，这股好大的可能会回到之前的Rm4.00以上。

有兴趣者可以留意下和研究的。

Weida (7111), Market price: Rm1.790

(Healthy balance sheet with stable gearing and high PEG/growth ratio)

Weida, founded in 1983 is based in Kuching, Malaysia. Weida has remained the undisputed market leader in Malaysia, with dominant position in east Malaysia. Berries of entry into this industry is high especially in east Malaysia like Sarawak.

NTA: 3.06   PE: 9.85  capital: 226 million

Weida thrives and excels through its 4 core competencies:

1.       Manufacturing of polyethylene- based building materials.

2.       Environment engineering services.

3.       Construction of telecommunication infrastructure ( telcom tower); environment ( waste water management ; stone water management…)

4.       Property development.

Points:

1.       Raising revenue since 1998- 2014, 2001 revenue:  Rm51,368,247 increased 549% to 2015 Rm333,841,242.

2.       Profitable every years since 1998; 2001 net profit after tax Rm8,534,878 increased to Rm29,166,411.

3.       FY 2016, if earning could achieve 25mil to 30mil, estimated FY16 PE is around 7.5

4.       Net asset value: RM3.06 vs Market price Rm1.790 now. Trading with huge undervalue.

5.       Weida has many sales already and going to book closing, and its will contribute many figures into next two quarterly Profit.

6.       stable gearing, with net equity /net liabilities around 1.67 times.

 

MMSV (0113)

MMSV (0113), market price:Rm0.670

MMSV, investment holding company, which engaged in manufactures industrial automated systems and machinery, design die sets, jigs, and fixtures and develops computer software.

In 2013, after management switched their business focus from semiconductor business to LED product line, it has successfully hit the highest number in both revenue and net profit in his history. ( LED use in smart phone devices, lighting industry and the automotive industry).

Products distributes within domestic market (26%); USA(40%); Asia (33%) ; Aus (0.18%) and Europe ( 0.01%). {IT is net beneficiary from stronger USD against MYR. 70% of its revenue is dominated in USD}.

Operating activities cash flow surge 170%  from 2011 Rm52,000  to 2015 Rm9.1 million. Also, until end of June 2015 company still maintains stable/strong operating activities cash flow around Rm5.3million.

NTA: Rm0.2110
PE: 9.3
ROE: 34.08
Dividend yield: 3.00
Capital : Rm109million

Kenanga target price: Rm0.950
RHB TP: Rm0.775

Technical analysis: support 0.650 ; resistance Rm0.690; if break 0.70 above, with a target price of Rm0.775.

Tomypak 7285 Resilient business model ( The next Daiboci)

Tomypak (7285) (The next Daiboci) Resilient Business Model

Market Price: Rm1.650

RHB TP: RM2.17； Kenanga TP: RM1.88

Tomypak is one of The Leading Convertor for flexible food packaging materials, sale of packaging materials, polyethylene, poly flims and Sheets. It offers high barrier vaccum metallized laminates for milk powder, beverages, snack food ans so on...It has a similar business model with Daiboci. 

NTA per share: Rm 1.05

PE: 14.95

ROE: 10.51

Dividend yield: around 4%

Cap: 180 million

Shares out: 109,340,000units

Strong customers based: Nestle, hupseng, Appollo, Yeo's, anjinomoto, Horlicks......

RHB's Top price: Rm2.17 is based on FY16 PE of 13.5x, in-line with the company's 2 years average historical PE. This also implies 25% discount to its closed peer, Daiboci TP Rm3.80 v trade at a 2years avearge historical PE18.

Techincal view: has strong support at Rm1.60. After klci index few time drop, this share price still standing strong at Rm1.60. Cut loss around Rm1.55

Call buy reasons:

As we know new management team already took position and leading by new Managing director early 2015. New management team's first mission is eliminate and solve the higher operating cost issue since mid-2012 by improvement in efficiency and increase production capacity & greater cost saving. New production machineries with more automation processes and higher output eg. Installed and upgrade its camera inspection machines to detect quality of products (allows the company to cut down on wastage by over 30% on a monthly based.

Lower raw material price come after lower Crude oil is currently around USD55 per barrel. On average, raw material accountant for 70% to 75% of Tomypak's production cost. This directly increasing net profit margin for the company and this reflected by latest first quaterly report 2015 v recorded Rm5.3million ( the best net quarter profit since mid 2015).

Capacity expansion: OCT 2014, company acquired 10.5 acres land in senai, Johor. Allow capacity expansion in 2015 and 2016. Besides, new management team set a target or vision to surpass Daiboci (8125) in next three years.