Tekseng (7200), 0.845

Business engaged in the manufacture and trading of PVC related product and solar panel.

Key exporter beneficiary:

1. US demand rise for solar panels to last through at least 2017.
2. US anti-dumping duties on China and Taiwan producers provides a 20% pricing advantage. 
3. Cost effective after joint venture with Taiwan company will more production line.

2016 net earning to rise by over 5 fold from 2014's Rm7 million to Rm41million

1. Potential upside given october's annualized net profit reached RM50 million, above full year 2016 forecast.

2. New OEM contract with assured intermediate term profit to add Rm5 million to net profit.

3. Solar panel will boom early next year. The global market for solar panels is expected to soar to a record high in the first half of 2016 because of strong demand as well as favorable policies in the USA and China. IHS says that manufacturers will produce 16.82 gigawatts of solar panels in the first quarter next year followed by another 17.73 gigawatts in the second quarter. One gigawatt is nearly the equivalent energy produced by a large gas or nuclear plant.

Capital management

1. Dividend yield could reach 4.8% in 2016 based on min 30% payout ratio policy.

2. Solar panel manufacturing JV could enhance capital management.

Target price: short term TP Rm1.15; long term TP 1.30, implied 2016 Forecast EPS

Tecguan (7439) in a good profit trend

Market price: Rm1.54

NTA: Rm2.00

Gearing ratio ( Total asset/ total liabilities)=  1.93 times

Net cash per share: Rm0.71 ( cash rich and healthy financial status)

Teck guan perdana berhad, engaged in the manufacture and sales of cocoa products in Malaysia, product primarily include cocoa butter, cocoa powder. If also engaged in trade and export of plantation produce; finished wood products, trade cocoa bean.

Buying points:

•       80% sales mainly in foreign currency, cost of good sales 73% in MYR. ( without any risk for currency conversion risk and benefit from strengthen USD dollar)
•      Oil palm planted area are matured ( Average 13 years crop age, it’s a best harvest age).
•        Rm2.00 NTA compare market price now Rm1.54 market price. ( undervalue)
•        Healthy balance sheet with healthy cash flow.

Target price:

Based on PE ratio forecast next Q3 and Q4 net profit. If next two Q3 and Q4 net profit can maintain profit like Q1 and Q2 2015  average 2.5 million to 3 million, company forecast PE will be PE ratio around 6 times ( is very cheap damn cheap!)

TP1: Rm 2.00 (short term); long term TP: RM2.30

Petronm 3042

Petronm (3042),
市价:Rm3.10
这股我们上星期有和我们的前辈和一位精算师朋友有研究过，这公司是经营petron打油站的。主要的业务是提炼汽油和燃油，而不是採油的，所以国际油价上涨和下涨完全不会影响到它的，反而它可以得到更多好处，因为政府已经fixed了它们的盈利%。 市场上好多人误会以为国际油价的重挫会影响到它的盈利，所以比较少人买进，但我们已经开始留意到这股开始有大买家开始买进了。之前股价下跌是因为公司花了好多钱去把个地区的mobile and esso 油站改变为现在的petron油站以及增加输运管的距离，和加强好多的设施，以满足未来的需求。
我们可以看到公司的提升工程已经完成了，业绩在今年的第一和第二业绩报告得到了非常好的盈利，如果第三和第四的报告可以保持在前两个的盈利一样，这股好大的可能会回到之前的Rm4.00以上。

有兴趣者可以留意下和研究的。

Weida (7111), Market price: Rm1.790

(Healthy balance sheet with stable gearing and high PEG/growth ratio)

Weida, founded in 1983 is based in Kuching, Malaysia. Weida has remained the undisputed market leader in Malaysia, with dominant position in east Malaysia. Berries of entry into this industry is high especially in east Malaysia like Sarawak.

NTA: 3.06   PE: 9.85  capital: 226 million

Weida thrives and excels through its 4 core competencies:

1.       Manufacturing of polyethylene- based building materials.

2.       Environment engineering services.

3.       Construction of telecommunication infrastructure ( telcom tower); environment ( waste water management ; stone water management…)

4.       Property development.

Points:

1.       Raising revenue since 1998- 2014, 2001 revenue:  Rm51,368,247 increased 549% to 2015 Rm333,841,242.

2.       Profitable every years since 1998; 2001 net profit after tax Rm8,534,878 increased to Rm29,166,411.

3.       FY 2016, if earning could achieve 25mil to 30mil, estimated FY16 PE is around 7.5

4.       Net asset value: RM3.06 vs Market price Rm1.790 now. Trading with huge undervalue.

5.       Weida has many sales already and going to book closing, and its will contribute many figures into next two quarterly Profit.

6.       stable gearing, with net equity /net liabilities around 1.67 times.

 

MMSV (0113)

MMSV (0113), market price:Rm0.670

MMSV, investment holding company, which engaged in manufactures industrial automated systems and machinery, design die sets, jigs, and fixtures and develops computer software.

In 2013, after management switched their business focus from semiconductor business to LED product line, it has successfully hit the highest number in both revenue and net profit in his history. ( LED use in smart phone devices, lighting industry and the automotive industry).

Products distributes within domestic market (26%); USA(40%); Asia (33%) ; Aus (0.18%) and Europe ( 0.01%). {IT is net beneficiary from stronger USD against MYR. 70% of its revenue is dominated in USD}.

Operating activities cash flow surge 170%  from 2011 Rm52,000  to 2015 Rm9.1 million. Also, until end of June 2015 company still maintains stable/strong operating activities cash flow around Rm5.3million.

NTA: Rm0.2110
PE: 9.3
ROE: 34.08
Dividend yield: 3.00
Capital : Rm109million

Kenanga target price: Rm0.950
RHB TP: Rm0.775

Technical analysis: support 0.650 ; resistance Rm0.690; if break 0.70 above, with a target price of Rm0.775.

Tomypak 7285 Resilient business model ( The next Daiboci)

Tomypak (7285) (The next Daiboci) Resilient Business Model

Market Price: Rm1.650

RHB TP: RM2.17； Kenanga TP: RM1.88

Tomypak is one of The Leading Convertor for flexible food packaging materials, sale of packaging materials, polyethylene, poly flims and Sheets. It offers high barrier vaccum metallized laminates for milk powder, beverages, snack food ans so on...It has a similar business model with Daiboci. 

NTA per share: Rm 1.05

PE: 14.95

ROE: 10.51

Dividend yield: around 4%

Cap: 180 million

Shares out: 109,340,000units

Strong customers based: Nestle, hupseng, Appollo, Yeo's, anjinomoto, Horlicks......

RHB's Top price: Rm2.17 is based on FY16 PE of 13.5x, in-line with the company's 2 years average historical PE. This also implies 25% discount to its closed peer, Daiboci TP Rm3.80 v trade at a 2years avearge historical PE18.

Techincal view: has strong support at Rm1.60. After klci index few time drop, this share price still standing strong at Rm1.60. Cut loss around Rm1.55

Call buy reasons:

As we know new management team already took position and leading by new Managing director early 2015. New management team's first mission is eliminate and solve the higher operating cost issue since mid-2012 by improvement in efficiency and increase production capacity & greater cost saving. New production machineries with more automation processes and higher output eg. Installed and upgrade its camera inspection machines to detect quality of products (allows the company to cut down on wastage by over 30% on a monthly based.

Lower raw material price come after lower Crude oil is currently around USD55 per barrel. On average, raw material accountant for 70% to 75% of Tomypak's production cost. This directly increasing net profit margin for the company and this reflected by latest first quaterly report 2015 v recorded Rm5.3million ( the best net quarter profit since mid 2015).

Capacity expansion: OCT 2014, company acquired 10.5 acres land in senai, Johor. Allow capacity expansion in 2015 and 2016. Besides, new management team set a target or vision to surpass Daiboci (8125) in next three years.

 

Mflour (Malaysia Four Mill Berhad) 3662

 Mflour一间值得买进的消费公司。公司established于1961年，公司主要的生意是从事小麦加工以及销售（面粉生产），以及谷物和其他相关的产品。该公司还涉及到生产和销售动物饲料及相关原材料;购买和家禽转售的订单农业;加工及销售家禽产品;养殖和销售鸡苗和鸡蛋;和家禽养成农场，培训和研究中心，以及出租物业的经营。Mflour是一间马来西亚第二大的面粉生产商，在越南则是第一大的面粉生产商（占公司26%的盈利）。面粉业务占有公司盈利的60多%，而且集团不停的扩张公司在市场上的地位，近年来马不停蹄的增加和提高公司的生产能力来符合或满足庞大的市场需求。我们可以看到公司毫不犹豫地下重本去增加Malaysia以及Vietnam的生产线，的确它的效应是很明显的产生了正面的画面。在近年来公司也通过联营的方式进军印尼这个庞大比我们大几倍的新兴市场设厂，成立了印尼PT BUNGA SARI的品牌来扩张在印尼的面粉业务，印尼的业务预测将会在今年2014年的第三业绩开始贡献公司的盈利，这的确值得我们关注。
为什么我们要买进这公司，有什么理由要持有它，而它会有怎样的市场潜能呢！让我们来看看以下的几个因素：

1．Population（人口）
对于我来说消费股是非常依靠POPULATION MARKET （人口），在经济上最大的主角就是人口，一个国家到一间小公司的成功以及失败完全是和人口有着密切的关系，因为人口永远是支掌着一个经济，国家以及一个产品的主要因素，Mflour的确在人口上的因素占了很大的优势，亚洲的确是一个非常庞大的面粉使用市场，几乎每个亚洲人每一天都会吃到以面粉制作出的食品：面包，糕点，面条，印度煎饼（roti  canai）等等。它的产品是永远不会消失，除非人类再也不存在了。再加上，亚洲的人口收入大多数都比较处于中下水平，所以面粉是我们这些平民的主要食品，没了它我们要如何活T.T.。人口不停的上涨，这的确给Mflour带来无量的上涨空间，这我们可以通过公司在这几年的turnover来证明它的上涨实力：2009 年的turnover RM1,201,053,000 完美的上涨到2013年的RM2,306,038,000差不多上涨了100%，这完全是人口的需求上涨而增加的，它不是好像其他接工程的公司这样通过得到别人给以PROJECT来刺激本身的Turnover，有工程是就好,没工程就不好，所以MFLOUR的TURNOVER 生意量是永远不会停止上涨，人口一直不停的上涨。我找不到理由它会停止上涨，什么见顶或者没上涨空间的理由。

2. Economies of scale (规模经济)
MFLOUR一间比起其他同行来说，它的确拥有经济模式的大公司。所谓的规模经济就是公司不停的提高本身的生产力或是大量的生产来降低公司的生产成本，这样可以提高公司的盈利以及大大提高公司在那领域的竞争能力。MCDonalds公司就是全球拥有最大的规模经济，它就是最好的SAMPLE。就我拿个Example来说：MCDonalds通过7年的研究终于研发出MCnuggets这品牌，就是要符合每个国家的要求，这样它们才可以大量的生产来拉低生产本钱，如果每个国家都卖或生产不同的nuggets的确对它们来说太costly了。Mflour不停的投入资金在提高本身的生产能力，增加capacity来fulfill和`朝向 规模经济的条件。以亚洲的人口来说MFLOUR的确可以拥有更大的经济规模，而且它已经在做着了。

3．Production Cost（生产本钱）
随着小麦原产品掉到52weeks的最低点，不停的创造出新低。这的确给以MFLOUR很好的天时，直接可以大大的降低公司的生产成本，提高公司的PROFIT MARGIN。 除此之外，Corn原产品也是下降了差不多30%,在这一方面要大大地拉低了公司在加工及销售家禽产品;养殖和销售鸡苗和鸡蛋;和家禽养成农场上的成本。这样的情况就好象你的工资上了，但生活费下降了那么的兴奋。如果生产本钱可以一直维持在这样的水平，我相信公司可以趁着这机会累积更多的盈利，来做为未来的扩张，或者红股和利息的分发。

4．Cash flow (现金流)
公司的现金流都维持和控制在非常健康的水平，在cashflow operating 方面这五年平均维持在RM75,013,000左右。在casflow investing 上，我们可以看到公司在这三年平均每年投入Rm120,000,000左右的巨款来加强公司的生产线和扩张市场，我相信公司在未来的几年会对公司所投入的资金产生巨大的正面回响。公司每年都大手笔的投资在公司的业务上，这并没有影响公司在累积现金方面带来负面的影响，我们可以从公司的现金成长来带出一个信息，当公司出更多钱在投资流那方面，会给公司的现金带来正面的回报，2009 公司持有的净现金是Rm142,179,000 增值到2013年的Rm307,261,000，成长了一个116%。

5．Par value vs NTA and cash per unit
从par value vs NTA和cash per unit 上看来我们可以清楚地知道公司是否以能力给以红股或bonus. 的确以mflour现在的财力它是有能力分发红股的。NTA是rm1.30 ，如果以PARvalue 0.50 比较的话，它已经超越了parvalue  160%,而且在NTA rm1.30的net tangible asset里有38%是现金来的，就是公司的cash per unit是rm0.50.

我已经吃了这碗面粉糕了，希望它可以带给我更多回报。
(没有买卖的成分，只供参考）